To the orthodox fiscal hawk, Indonesia’s single-minded pursuit of its $3.8 billion (Rp60 trillion) per quarter “Free Nutritious Meals” (MBG) program looks like a reckless expansion of the deficit. Yet, for Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa and the Prabowo administration, this is not mere populism; it is the cornerstone of a new state doctrine: Sumitronomics.
Named after the President’s father, the legendary economist Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, the doctrine posits that a high GDP growth target of 8% is unattainable without a foundation of “Social-Political Stability and Equity.” In Jakarta’s view, feeding the nation’s youth is not a cost—it is a strategic insurance premium against the social fragmentation that often haunts emerging markets during rapid transitions.
Strategic Audit: The Macroeconomic Tug-of-War
The administration is betting that the multiplier effect of a massive localized food supply chain will outweigh the fiscal strain.
Why Jakarta is Doubling Down
To international investors, the administration is making a pointed argument: Inequality is a systemic risk. The “persistence” in executing the MBG program despite fiscal scrutiny is rooted in three global-scale logic points:
- Consumption as a Defense: By shifting the burden of child nutrition from the household to the state, the government is effectively providing an in-kind income boost to millions. This keeps domestic consumer confidence high even as global trade fluctuates.
- The Danantara Integration: The MBG program provides the necessary demand for the nascent BPI Danantara’s food-security projects. It forces the modernization of the agricultural supply chain by guaranteeing a buyer for billions of tons of produce.
- Stability over Austerity: Indonesia has observed the “social scars” of austerity in other developing nations. Prabowo’s team believes that maintaining an “Investment Grade” rating is easier with a well-fed, stable population than with a balanced budget and an angry street.
Strategic Verdict:
Sumitronomics treats social equity as a public good that must be purchased, however dearly. For the global community, the success of the MBG program will be the ultimate litmus test for Indonesia’s ambition. If executed with transparency, it could be a blueprint for emerging market resiliency. If marred by corruption, the “pillar of equity” may become the weight that cracks Indonesia’s fiscal ceiling.
