AMBARA GLOBAL

Trimming Welfare via Deciles: When State Coffers Run Dry, Citizens Get “Promoted” by Math

​It turns out there is an exceptionally elegant way to slash social welfare budgets without ever having to explicitly admit, “Sorry, we are out of money.” The trick? Run it through a mathematical decile formula.

​Amid the public uproar over the government’s rush to overhaul the National Single Social and Economic Data (DTSEN), sharp criticism has emerged from the academic sphere. Senior Lecturer of Public Policy and Management (MKP) at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), Agustinus Subarsono, suspects a stealthy trick behind the 1-to-10 decile classification system that has suddenly become an absolute prerequisite for receiving social assistance (bansos) and subsidized goods.

​As reported by Suara.com, Subarsono strongly suspects that the ten-decile framework was introduced not out of a pure desire for precise data, but rather because the government’s fiscal condition is gasping for air and running monthly deficits.

​The “You Are Wealthy Now” Strategy: Phasing Out Welfare Recipients Stealthily

​According to Subarsono’s analysis, the decile system functions like a piece of bureaucratic magic—subtle, yet painfully sharp for the average citizen’s wallet:

  1. A Convenient Excuse to Restrain the Budget: Rather than openly acknowledging the limits of social assistance and subsidy funds, the government uses decile categories as a official shield to narrow the pipeline of recipients.
  2. No Wealth Gain, Yet Cut Off Anyway: Hilariously, citizens who are suddenly reclassified into deciles 7, 8, or 9—and thus automatically dropped from welfare rosters—have not actually experienced any meaningful improvement in their economic standing. Their day-to-day reality remains unchanged, yet on official state paperwork, they are magically branded as “capable”!
  3. Head-Scratching Census Indicators: Subarsono asserts that the public has every right to question the validity of the metrics used in the decile census. Do the criteria accurately reflect citizens’ real-world household finances, or are they mere formality indicators calibrated to hit budget-cutting quotas?

​Data Refinement or a Welfare Elimination Game?

​This sharp critique from the UGM expert delivers a sobering, tongue-in-cheek reality check. While essential commodity prices continue to climb and the pockets of vulnerable middle-class families grow thinner, those very households risk having their decile status bumped up to “wealthy.”

​If these decile metrics continue to be enforced without honest ground-level validation, this social data overhaul is nothing more than an illusion of fiscal efficiency: state coffers might be spared from deficits, but vulnerable citizens will be eliminated one by one from the welfare safety net.

Photo cover: social welfare – illustration (ist)

By: Emha Firmansyah

Translated and Edited by: Lilisatya Wati

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